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Friday, May 9, 2008

An Energy Policy that Makes Sense (Reprise)


On April 4, 2008 I published my first energy policy on Seeking Alpha. Oil was around $100/barrel. Roughly one month later, oil is up another 20% and now over $120/barrel; the US dollar is dropping like a rock; the S& P500 has done nothing in years, and inflation, food and otherwise, is high and rising. CEOs of major oil companies took the unprecedented step to publicly say at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland that worldwide oil supply will not keep up with worldwide oil demand by the year 2015. That is only 7 years from now. If oil prices are $120/barrel today (while oil supply and demand are balanced), what will prices be in 2015? Regardless, it is well past the time to take action. Yet still no word from the President and Congress on a real energy policy to prepare and protect America from the realities of peak oil. Why? I again submit a comprehensive energy policy below. It has been updated with the excellent feedback I received from the readers of Seeking Alpha. I commend you all for your interest, intelligence, and passion.
Since the US has no real energy policy today, the time constraints enforced by peak oil will require our new energy policy to be correct the first time around. I suspect we will not get a second chance. Below is an outline of a comprehensive energy policy that tackles the challenges of peak oil head-on. It will require sacrifice and present many challenges to the people of our nation. It needs to be implemented with the urgency of a “crash” program, like the Manhattan project. We must be up to this task. There is no alternative to failure.

The first step in an energy policy that addresses peak oil is to acknowledge the problem at the highest levels of government. No difficult problem can expect to be solved until it is first acknowledged. We need to make the words "peak oil" as prevalent on the lips of Americans as is "Britney Spears" or "Hannah Montana". Every citizen needs to know exactly what is at stake here.

• Although the policies listed below are, for the most part Federal initiatives, it should be understood that state and local governments, including the association of governors, should be major role-players. They are best able to address issues like mass transit in their cities, power generation and transportation issues which are unique within their boundaries, and other similar aspects of an overall energy policy which are best dealt with at the state and local levels.

• Since transportation is a large component of imported oil usage (gasoline), we need to immediately increase tax incentives for highly fuel efficient vehicles. At the same time, we need to place *very* large penalty taxes on purchases of low mileage SUVs such as the Hummer. Yes, Americans are free to drive what they like, but if they chose to buy a vehicle that threatens America's economic prosperity and security they must be made to pay through the nose. The tax revenue from the sale of these idiotic vehicles will directly fund the tax rebates for fuel efficient vehicles. That way, if your neighbor drives a Hummer, you can thank him for helping to pay for your Prius.

60 mph top speed limit.

We need higher fuel economy CAFE standards passed sooner rather than later (as in NOW). The recent legislation Congress passed on CAFE standards won't be fully implemented until 2021(!). Are you kidding me? The game will be over by then if we don't take more intelligent and immediate action. We cannot continue to let the US automobile lobby draft legislation governing mpg standards. Internal combustion engines should be required to satisfy the so-called “open fuels standard”. That is, they should be required to run on gasoline, ethanol, methanol, or any combination of these fuels.

American automobile manufacturers must receive government incentives to design and manufacture alternatives to the gasoline powered internal combustion engine. The assistance received will depend on the quality and timeliness of delivery of said vehicle, be it an electric, natural gas, or hydrogen powered solution. The goal should be for the vehicle to have a range of at least 300 miles per fueling and be manufacturable by 2012.

• Such alternative vehicle solutions will likely be powered, in part, by electricity. We therefore need a massive government led initiative to build out our non-oil and gas based electrical power sources and to update our electrical grid infrastructure. We need to free up natural gas for transportation and heating.

Power sources that should be financially and otherwise encouraged by the government are nuclear, wind, and solar. We will need massive amounts of electricity from these sources, and we need to begin NOW. Nuclear plants require long lead times to license and build and we should have started yesterday.

Since more power will be delivered electrically from nuclear, wind, and solar sources, the entire US electric grid needs to be updated and its capacity increased dramatically .

The US ethanol program mandates should be stopped. It has probably saved some oil, albeit at what cost? The cost of grains has skyrocketed causing real inflation at the grocery store for everything from bread to beef and chicken. Also, with the affects of global warming, the water requirements of ethanol will become a real issue. Government should stop subsidizing ethanol and instead put these subsidies on wind and solar energy as well as building out the electrical grid. Besides, ethanol actually encourages further use of gasoline and in some ways gives American's the impression that it is the "answer" to higher gasoline prices. It is not. Lift the mandates and remove import taxes on imported ethanol (from Brazil for instance). Let the free market use ethanol and biofuels as desired and as economically feasible. Government mandates should not distort this market.

• The US has huge coal reserves, but coal is dirty. We need more research done in the area of coal-to-liquids and coal gasification so that we can harness the energy in coal without destroying our environment in a cost effective manner. I don't know if that is possible, but surely we need to find out. Soon. How is CO2 "sequestored" in the Earth? I don't understand how this is possible. Let's get definitive coal policy developed and move on.

• The Federal government, the state of Alaska, and Canada, need to get off their collective duffs and commit to building a much needed, and long overdue, natural gas pipeline from the gas fields of Alaska and Canada to the lower-48. ConocoPhillips and BP have committed to building this (no Exxon participation?). Governments and industrialist should support this effort. Planning and construction need to begin immediately and be accelerated.

• The Federal government and the individual states need to speed up the licensing and incentivize the building of LNG terminals on both coasts and in the Gulf of Mexico.

Conservation and efficiency guidelines should be issued by the government and local utility providers. I cringe when I see huge displays of Christmas lights which burn all night long. It makes me realize how clueless most Americans are and what a long way we have to go. We should be penalizing such indiscriminate use of power. Energy efficient design techniques should be high priority on all types of construction and manufacturing endeavors.

"Alternative fuels" should be encouraged but only after careful study of all relevant data. Ethanol is an example where short-sightedness, simple analysis, conclusions, and "bandwagon" jumping can end up with failed policy initiatives which are harmful to the overall objectives of a sound energy policy. (I don't consider wind and solar to be "alternative" energy sources. Wind is economically viable today, and solar be shortly). Biofuels (cellulosic ethanol and methanol) surely have a significant role to play, but let’s not get emotional on the subject. Let the scientists and engineers make the call, not politicians. Geothermal should be utilized where appropriate and cost effective.

We need to start drilling for oil off the coasts of California and Florida and ANWR. These oil assets will take years to bring online, and we need to start NOW.

We need to increase the tax on gasoline, not decrease it! I know this will not be popular, but we must discourage gasoline consumption. Meanwhile, the gasoline tax receipts should go directly to support wind, solar, and nuclear energy production.

We need to develop electric mass transit for people and goods. The French have done it and power it with nuclear energy. The Germans have done it and powered it by solar and geothermal. The US again lags in energy policy. Aren’t Americans tired of falling behind Europe in terms of energy policy? Are Europeans really that much smarter than Americans? We should have high speed bullet train networks up and down both coasts, north and south in middle America, and and east and west coast connection. We need to kick the auto and trucking lobbyists out of the halls of Congress since they are largely responisible for not allowing high speed electric trains to be constructed (actually, it's the corrupt congressmen who take the lobbyists' money that are responsible...but that's another story).

We need to encourage local sustainability in energy and food production. We need to encourage people to grow their own gardens, supply locally available solutions. We need to encourage population control both in the US and globally. Self reliance and frugality is required.

4 day work week whenever and wherever possible.

Stengthen the US dollar! This cannot be done by mere rhetoric. Congress must balance the books. This means stopping the insane Bush tax breaks to the most wealthy Americans and matching spending with revenues. The US dollar has dropped over 50% since Bush began his economic "policy". Oil is priced in US dollars per barrel. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out the connection here.

Encourage population control by providing information and knowledge about the capability of the Earth's resources to provide for its inhabitants - not just wrt energy, but food, shelter, and all natural resources.

Lastly, the citizens of the US must demand political leadership on this issue. As voters, we must make it clear that we will not re-elect politicians that continue to put the number one threat to US national security on the back burner. There is no issue that demands more political urgency than peak oil. Period. We need qualified and knowledgeable people to run for office on a platform that places an ***energy policy*** front and center.

These then should be the central themes of a comprehensive energy policy. The policy needs to be drafted in simple unambiguous terms. The tax policies need to be long term and phased in/out in a sensible fashion so that business can plan their budgets accordingly without having to worry about the outcome of the latest election.
Windfall profits taxes on the oil companies is an idiotic idea and counter productive. We have an oil supply problem, so tax the US companies that are providing oil? This is madness.
Now, my friends say, "Mike, what's with the nuclear solution, I thought you were an environmentalist?" Well, I am an environmentalist! Burning coal is simply killing the environment, period. CO2 is one issue, but the mercury being dumped into our water table is just as serious an issue to me. Anyone know the half-life of mercury? We have ignored peak oil for so long, we have no choice now but to license and build nuclear reactors as quickly as possible. Yes, I understand the issue of nuclear waste. That said, the Energy Department has been working on the technology to post-process spent fuel rendering it less hazardous. We should increase research and development of all stages of nuclear energy. Bottom line is this: we face such a huge energy crisis we will need all the non-oil energy we can get.
With respect to global warming, all I can say is this: peak oil has the ability to completely wreck our economy by the year 2015. Global warming, which I am in complete agreement with, does not have the power to wreck our economy for decades. So, which is the most urgent threat? Answer: Peak Oil. Now, the solutions of either address both, but I bring up the distinction because it is a question of priorities and urgency, If only people and media used the phrase "peak oil" as much as they do "global warming".
The longer the United States waits to address the realities of peak oil, the harder the task will become. If we do not act soon, it will simply be too late and we will suffer a decrease in our standard of living which, I can assure you, the American people are not only not ready for but can scarcely imagine. We are already beginning to see the affects of peak oil now. On the other hand, prudent action, while requiring sacrifice and hard work, can revitalize our country and usher in an entirely new era of economic prosperity. I certainly hope the next administration chooses the later path. You, the reader, can make a difference by speaking directly with your elected officials on the issue. Send them an email today with a link to this policy paper. Remember, it feels good to be a true patriot!

10 comments:

Gary said...

Good work Fitzman. I like a lot of the stocks that you mentioned at the end of your article. I also own or have owned several of them. Two of my holdings that I hope will benefit from Peak Oil are LGCY and DMLP. They are a bit more complicated than energy trusts because they are master limited partnerships, but as oil and natural gas move up they should continue to benefit.

I enjoy your blog. Take care

Anonymous said...

Fitz,

Good article in Seeking Alpha on diversification. It solicited a lot of good discussion. From your writtings, it appears we are like minded on the matter of energy in the USA. You are welcome to use freely any the ideas in my blog at www.phillips49.blogspot.com.

Don Phillips

A von Altendorf said...

I'm always skeptical of regulatory proposals, but I admit that yours is sensible and well reasoned.

A von Altendorf

Joel said...

Excellent analysis and recommendations with one exception. Terrible idea to drill for oil off California and Florida - our most beautiful coasts. Alaska is still suffering from massive oil spill and the recent one in San Francisco Bay wreaked havoc on local wildlife. There are smaller oil spills all the time - just check the numbers.
A little nitpicking - it is Nabors not Neighbors Industries. Otherwise, keep up the good work. Joel

Anonymous said...

The answer to the energy crisis is FUSION. That's how the sun works where our energy comes from. It is known how to FUSE the atom instead of splitting it, just not how to control or harness FUSION, but nuclear fusion produces little if any waste and will provide limitless energy to light up the planet if desired. Let the oil companies work with the govamint* to do the research. It's the FUSION, stupid.

Anonymous said...

How about having one formula for unleaded gasoline? We have several states with their own formula that ties up refinary time and needs to be inventoried etc.

Dan Curtis said...

Mike, I am with ya brother. Wish our politicians were listening!

Anonymous said...

Excellent, comprehensive program.

I would add that it should not be politics as usual. Energy that can be produced more cheaply elsewhere - example, Brazilian ethanol - should not have tariffs put on it. As you note, it is very late in the game. Resources have to be spent efficiently to address this critical issue.

Also, regulatory changes (enforced position limits) are needed to correct massive commodities speculation, that is boosting demand and prices, by hedge funds and others who are not part of the normal supply/demand chain for commodities.

annoyed said...

windfall profit taxes
make sense, because they
are mkaing "WINDFALL" profits
- at everyone's expense.
if they were thinking of the
US's interests, they'd reduce
their profit margins.
instead their profits are exploding
every quarter, which means
they are skinning all US consumers
to the bone.
AND they have their bitch bush
in the house to make everyone else
tow the line.
btw, you sound like a paid
oil bitch yourself.

okc.onsiterepair said...

I like your article, I'd like you to consider adding the following power generation schemes as well.

1) Ocean Current, specifically
the Florida Current that feeds
into the Gulf Stream current.

Use the Aquanator design:

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/09/26/1096137100758.html?oneclick=true

It carries about 30 times as
much flow as all the rivers
of the World and we could partially tap it for power.

With all the hurricanes though
I'd bury the "GIANT" power
cables in service tunnels
and run it North.

Per Wikipedia long haul
transmission losses for the
US in 2005 was 7% so it is
viable.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_Stream#Normal_behavior_of_the_Gulf_Stream

2) Coskata's Ethanol

http://www.ecogeek.org/content/view/1286/

3) LS9's Crap2Crude bacteria

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article4133668.ece

4) Valcent Technologies Algae
that makes 100,000 gal/acre/yr
in the Desert.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8hioZ7C6HLs

5) Jet Stream Power via high
Altitude balloons - proof of
concept is in the works now.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jet_stream#Future_power_generation

According to one estimate, only 1 percent of the potential wind energy in the jet stream could meet the world's current energy needs.

Yes, that is right.

1% of the World Wide jet Stream
could in theory replace all
Power on Earth.