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Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Market Update and a Note on Punctuation

EDITOR'S NOTE:
those of you have emailed me for years know that i rarely used capital letters. not sure why i tried to "be right" on this blogsite, but alas, i am tired of it and will revert back to my normal style. call it laziness but i just don't like to hold and hit two keys when i can hit one be done with it (i think i am being more efficient). if it's a problem for some of you, don't worry: speech recognition will come along soon and i won't even have to type and all the capitalization will be done automatically. until then, please realize i do know the rules of capitalization, i just chose not to abide by them (what a friggin rebel, huh?).
END NOTE

perhaps it's the glee in finishing my taxes, or maybe the motivation of getting two comments in one day (zow-eee! somebody's actually reading this? why??), but i feel compelled to blog today. besides, it's snowing and supposed to hit 20 degrees tonite and i have absolutely nothing else to do but read my shelby foote civil war book which i don't want to read cause i don't want to finish it!

i would turn to basketball, but i forgot to watch the friggin TN/Memphis game (Vols won, and what a fun team to watch play b-ball, no wonder they are #1) and Georgia Tech is in a death spiral...so, back to my other winter time hobby....

MARKET UPDATE:

two all-time highs today: oil and dollar(NOT), or, in logic design parlance ~USD. for those of you not versed in logic design vernacular, the US dollar hit an all-time low, and therefore the inverse would have hit an all-time high. check out the dollar's drop of over 1% today:

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

it is not surprising, therefore, that oil traded at an all-time high of over $101/barrel. the two are of course linked since oil is prices in US dollars (at least for now). woe is the day if the middle eastern countries decide to switch to the euro, which they are considering. perhaps obama can take a seat in the white house and turn America's finances around. meantime, will Bernanke cut again in march inflation booming? the fed has already made the decision for "growth" as opposed to "fighting inflation", but the question remains, just how far will they go with rate cuts? which is in affect asking, just how low will the US dollar drop? i read once that the UK pound dropped 80% when it went from world-leader to "has been". we could only be half-way down the slope...and oil will grease the slope...

hey, did anyone see the rally in silver today?

http://www.kitco.com/market/

3.8% what's up with that? hmmm...my guess is that news that the IMF will sell a bunch of gold in an attempt to cool it off (and prop up fiat currencies like the US dollar....). so, investors said hey, that will dampen gold for awhile...and platinum has skied already, so hey, let's go into silver, and boy, go they went! this is even after some relatively bearish silver inventory reports in the last few weeks. that said, gold was up $10/oz today.

as far as equities go, the OSX (oil service index) has come roaring back from the "correction" that had me shakin in my boots last month. i still see the oil services as the best overall investment for the next 10 years (Fidelity Select Energy Services) , followed by energy in general, and precious metals running a very close 3rd (Vanguard Precious Metals). and that's it. perhaps some money in DBC (or other type of commodity ETF, maybe an AG one), but it is certainly not a time to be "broadly diversified" as susie orman and the other financial "experts" keep saying. broadly diversified now means very mediocre returns or even negative returns. US bonds or CD's? forget about it, falling dollar and inflation will eat them up. dead money. S&P 500? look at the S&P500 returns in the 1970's to have a clue as to where the index is headed in the years to come. peak oil will continue to drive all investment returns until we (the world in general, but specifically the biggest consumer of oil, the US) take rational steps to solve the crisis. i don't see policy or investment anywhere near the level needed to solve the oncoming peak oil crisis. so, oil is going higher. much, much higher.

the first step in solving any problem is to acknowledge the problem exists in the first place. apparently, oil at $100/barrel won't pull the heads out of the sand. perhaps $200/barrel will be what it takes? regardless, how can someone talk about "national security" when the biggest threat to our national security isn't even acknowledged? many investors are going to lose their collective asses, and we may even lose our country. it's that serious folks.

meanwhile, good old COP is back to $84. i said back on Jan 24's blog that COP in the low 70's was a screaming BUY. i don't see how COP doesn't hit $100 this year as they are printing money and the recent bull market in natural gas is great for them (COP is the nations largest producer of natural gas). meanwhile i am kicking myself in the ass for not jumping on PBR and SLB a few weeks back when they were selling at 20 percent discounts. perhaps it was all the red wine i was drinking at the time to keep from thinking about all the money i was losing in the "correction". i did buy some SLB, but not enough (what a wuss). regardless, february has been a great month for energy investors. all that said, it's all temporary and who really cares when it will soon be time to go fly-fishing again and forget all this crapola.

can't wait for the debate tonite. this week hillary has compared obama's campaign to something out of karl rove's playbook (girl, you can't be serious!). she denied releasing a nice picture of barack in a somali turbin. this was after a staffer of hers quit a few weeks back after her campaign released a scare tactic email informing gullible americans that obama is a muslim (when in fact he is church of christ if memory serves). easy to believe though when your name ryhmes with osama and your middle name is hussein. regardless, muslim or not, the man can THINK, which is what we need (and have needed for the last 7 years...). besides, he hasn't taken a dime of lobbyist money, and i tell ya, he thinks like me on lobbyist: if you haven't been voted into congress by the American people, you don't get to sit in the Congressional chamber when it is session (like lobbyist now do). hell, lobbyist now WRITE the legislation. this will end with obama in the white house.

oh, and while i'm at it, what is with women saying "i am voting for hillary because it's time for a female president". whooooa doctor!! are you kidding me? can you imagine gloria steinem's reaction if i was to say to her that i am voting for obama because he's a man? omg, she would lay into me until i was layed out (and as bad as i need to get laid, i don't think gloria would do it for me). point is, women have "suffraged" for the right to vote (pun intended) and for equal rights and now that they have a lady (although some wonder if hillary actually counts as one...) candidate running for president they vote for her just because "it's time for a woman president"?? i don't thinks so girls..what about policy? this campaign isn't about race or gender, it's about ideas and policy and the ability to display critical thinking. vote for a woman even if her vote on iraq enabled bush to be bush? vote for her even if her health care plan mandates everyone participates even if they cannot afford it? i mean as much as i yearn for a return to the policies of bill clinton, that's not reason for me to vote for hillary. i mean i just dont see how someone can watch barack consistently beat hillary up in these debates (although very nicely and with a coy smile on his face), and think that hillary is a better choice for the white house. nope, it's feminist double-talk, and i am dissapointed in the women-folk that are practicing this. hell, the lil waitress at the chinese restaurant didnt even talk to me today after we had a conversation last week about her support for hillary and my support for obama. her reason was "it's time for a woman in the white house". of course, i think she really wondered how in the hell any white person could possible vote for a black man (after all, i am in middle tennessee...and havent even seen a black person in months). anyhow, she used to like me and chit-chat and flirt...and now she sends the other girl over to bring my water, lemon, chop-sticks, and chives for my hot & sour soup. feminist double-talk - but the soup was awesome.

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